Short time prediction of wind speeds from local measurements
H. Kantz, D. Holstein, M. Ragwitz, N.K. Vitanov
Proceedings of the EUROMECH Colloquium 464b Wind energy
93-98
2007
abstract
We compare different schemes for the short time (few seconds) prediction of local wind speeds in terms of their performance. Special emphasis is laid on the prediction of turbulent gusts, where data driven continuous state Markov chains turn out to be quite successful. A test of their performance by ROC statistics is discussed in detail. Taking into account correlations of several measurement positions in space enhances the predictability. As a striking result, stronger wind gusts possess a better predictability.